Confronting CMEs in an Interview-Style Format

For our final project, we decided to assess the risk of coronal mass ejections (CMEs) through a series of interviews with an expert on solar phenomena. The first interview took place over zoom, and the second interview occurs in-person following a massive CME disaster. Our final project can be found below, or on YouTube here!

Throughout the year we have been exposed to various challenges humanity may confront over the coming century. Some of these challenges are inevitable, such as climate change, others are more analogous to an all-or-nothing, such as nuclear armageddon. However, each of the challenges discussed in class are quite thoroughly exposed in popular media, such as film. Coronal mass ejections (CMEs), however, present a threat that can have societal implications associated with several of the threats discussed in lecture.

The potential damage inflicted by cyber warfare as well as nuclear proliferation are both present at the onset of a CME. High-altitude nuclear detonations can cause electromagnetic pulses (EMPs) over regions, wiping out electrical infrastructure in that area. In addition, cyber warfare can knock out electrical infrastructure remotely. CMEs create a type of EMP, however instead of occurring over a single region, it’s global.

Our motivation for this project stems from a perceived ratio of [actual societal danger] to [level of discussion and preparedness]. We believe this ratio is abnormally high for CMEs. In order to illustrate this point, we took the view of a third party analyzing interview clips before and after a massive CME event. The first interview is conducted with a professor researching solar phenomena, and the interviewer is a university student who works with a campus newspaper. The initial interview is conducted over zoom. In this interview, the researcher lays out several of the risks posed by CMEs, the likelihood of a CME event, necessary regulations to safeguard our infrastructure, as well as explanations as to why this risk is so underdiscussed. The second interview is conducted in-person following a major CME event in 2021. This interview is much more casual, and has the same participants. The purpose is to discuss societal changes, such as calls for legislation to prevent a future disaster, as well as the decision to rely less on technology, illustrated by conducting an in-person interview.

Risks posed by CMEs: CMEs present several major risks. As aforementioned, a major CME event could be in many ways akin to a global EMP, such as those possible with high-altitude nuclear detonations. The result could destroy many processing units, computer chips, and many other aspects of electrical infrastructure. Given the reliance on electronics is greater in wealthier nations, CMEs present a less common global risk that would have worse impacts on such wealthier nations.

Likelihood of a CME event: CMEs occur all the time, such as every few weeks. However, given a CME is a burst of charged particles in a column-like line from the Sun, only bodies in its direct path will be affected. In addition, CMEs vary greatly in size, with only some capable of overwhelming Earth’s strong magnetic field. As a result, the last major CME to hit Earth only did so roughly 150 years ago. This was the “Carrington Event”, and the results were that early telegraph infrastructure was largely fried, leading some to ponder if this was the end of the world. Scientists currently estimate the risk of a Carrington Event-level CME in a given decade to be 12%, or 72% per century.

Pertinent Regulations: Some current military infrastructure is largely immune to most of the impacts of a CME given they protect against EMP weapons. In addition, the installation of early-warning systems to detect a potentially hazardous buildup of charged particles in the Sun’s magnetic field could imply an imminent massive CME. This article details further infrastructural changes that can safeguard our electrical infrastructure from a CME.

Explanations for Societal Under-Discussion: When comparing the risk of CMEs to that of other threats, certain differences can help explain the relative under-discussion of CME risks. The nuclear threat was omnipresent for much of the Cold War, with many people alive today having feared the strong possibility of nuclear armageddon. Climate change is already having visible impacts on modern society. Pandemics have occurred throughout the last century. For all of these threats, the risk has been quite visible for living members of the society. However, the most recent major CME disaster occured around 150 years ago, with no one surviving today who experienced it. In addition, their risk potential has only recently skyrocketed given the explosion of electrical innovation. As a result, the CME risk is much less visible to living members of society today, and has not been ingrained in our society over many generations, as with other threats, such as pandemics.

Our Final project can be found here as well as below!