East Asia Workshop: Politics, Economy and Society

East Asia Workshop: Politics, Economy and Society presents

“Threats from Within Assessing the Diversionary Escalation Theory”

Wenyan Deng

Data Manager

University of Chicago

4:30-6:00p.m., Tuesday, October 31^st, 2017

Pick Lounge, 5828 South University Ave.

*Light refreshments will be provided*

Abstract

The diversionary war theory suggests that leaders respond to domestic unrest by escalating tensions abroad. Past research suggests that territorial issues provide the easiest diversionary channel. Along these lines, China analysts such as Howard French have speculated that the country’s more escalatory maritime territorial behaviors in recent years are responses to its slowing economic growth. However, other scholars, such as M. Taylor Fravel, have contended that, historically, the PRC undertakes territorial escalation in response to changes in its relative claim power, rather than domestic crises. This article makes two contributions to this debate between a state-level and a domestic level theory of escalation. First, it analyzes the PRC’s maritime territorial and homeland disputes since 2002 and argues that, in the past two decades, the PRC has been more likely to use force when other claimants have become less aggressive. This observation in the PRC’s maritime territorial behavior contradicts Fravel’s state level, claim power-based escalation theory, which seems to apply more accurately to the PRC’s Cold War-era frontier disputes. Second, this paper offers a corrective mechanism to the traditional diversionary war theory, which posits that internal unrest and external aggression have a linear positive relationship. Instead, I argue that, at low levels of internal unrest, authoritarian states are also likely to increase territorial aggressiveness, because autocratic governments facing low internal unrest and enjoying strong control over their society are confident and likely to pursue external territorial goals more aggressively. Consistent with this mechanism’s predictions, the paper shows that, in both periods with very low and very high internal unrest, the PRC government has been more likely to escalate territorial tensions.

*To learn more about the workshop, please visit our workshop website: http://cas.uchicago.edu/workshops/eastasia/

*Subscribe or unsubscribe to the workshop mailing-list at: https://lists.uchicago.edu/web/info/east-asia

*Questions and concerns can be addressed to the student coordinator Haitong Xu (xuhaitong@uchciago.edu) and Yang Xiang (xiangalan@uchicago.edu)

Faculty sponsors:

Xi Song (Sociology), xisong@uchicago.edu

Dali Yang (Political Science), daliyang@uchicago.edu

Dingxin Zhao (Sociology), dzhao@uchicago.edu

The East Asia Workshop is sponsored by the Council on Advanced Studies in Humanities and Social Sciences. Persons with disabilities who believe they may need assistance please contact the student coordinator in advance.

Scott Relyea

Assistant Professor, Appalachian State University

‘A Fence on Which We Can Rely’: Asserting Sovereignty in Early Twentieth Century Southwest China

Friday, October 27th, 4:00-6:00 PM

John Hope Franklin Room [SSR 224]

**Please note the date and location for this session**

Discussant: Tian Yuan, PhD Student, University of Chicago History Department

Professor Scott Relyea will be presenting one of his current works-in-progress titled “Indigenizing International Law in Early Twentieth Century China: Sovereignty in the Sino-Tibetan Borderland,” Professor Relyea provides the following abstract:

This paper analyses the introduction of international law into China during the Qing Dynasty’s last decades and the first few years of the Republic of China. It explores the influence of two international law texts, the translation Wanguo gongfa (The Public Law of All States), published in Beijing in 1864, and perhaps the first indigenously written international law text in China, Gongfa daoyuan (The Origins of International Law), published in Chengdu around 1899. Building on scholarship exploring the global circulation of knowledge, which focuses largely on political and intellectual centres, this research offers an alternative perspective from the borderlands of Asia, from the interstices of global power where states and empires met and were transformed by the norms and principles of international law, especially territoriality and sovereignty. I argue that local Qing officials overseeing the Kham borderland of eastern Tibet during the late nineteenth and early twentieth centuries adopted the conceptual basis of international law, whereas central Qing government officials were slow to do so. It was in such contentious borderlands that theoretical claims to sovereignty under international law intersected with the actual exercise of authority, where Sichuan Province officials, influenced by these two texts, adapted the norm of territorial sovereignty to both exert and assert absolute Qing authority in Kham as a stepping stone toward the whole of Tibet. During these tumultuous years in China’s transition from imperial to state form, the actions and successes of these borderland officials in Kham fostered a more thorough adoption and application of international law principles by central government officials, especially during the first years of the Republic of China. This manifest in Republican Chinese negotiators referring to these actions in Kham as substantiation for appeal to the international law principle of ‘effective occupation’ at the Simla Conference (1913-14).

Professor Relyea’s paper can be found at the EAT Histories Website. The password is “simlafence”

As always, first-time attendees are welcome. Light refreshments and snacks will be served. This event is co-sponsored by the East Asia: Transregional Histories Workshop and the East Asia Workshop: Politics, Economy and Society.

East Asia Workshop: Politics, Economy and Society presents

“The Rice Theory of Culture: Evidence that Historical Rice Farming Shaped Culture in Southern China”

Thomas Telhelm

Assistant Professor of Behavioral Science

University of Chicago

4:30-6:00p.m., Tuesday, October 17th, 2017

Pick Lounge, 5828 South University Ave.

*Light refreshments will be provided*

Abstract

Cross-cultural psychologists have mostly contrasted Asia with the West. In this talk, the speaker will give evidence that there are significant cultural differences within China and within India. By testing 1,162 Han Chinese participants in six sites, the author found that people in southern China are more interdependent and holistic-thinking than people in the north. The author proposes that rice farming’s irrigation and high labor requirements gave southern China a tight, interdependent culture. In contrast, traditional wheat farming required less labor and less coordination, giving northern China a more free-wheeling independent culture. A separate study in India also revealed differences between traditional rice-farming and wheat-farming areas.

About the speaker

Thomas Talhelm studies how culture affects the way we behave. One of his recent major projects was studying how rice and wheat agriculture have given northern and southern China two very different cultures. His research has appeared in a variety of publications including Science, Personality and Social Psychology Bulletin, Journal of Experimental Social Psychology, and Current Directions in Psychological Science.

Thomas lived in China for five years teaching high school in Guangzhou as a Princeton in Asia fellow, as a freelance journalist in Beijing, and most recently as a Fulbright scholar and an NSF Graduate Research Fellow. While living in Beijing, Thomas founded Smart Air, a social enterprise that ships low-cost air purifiers to help people breathe clean air without shelling out thousands of dollars for expensive purifiers.

Thomas earned his Ph.D. in social psychology from the University of Virginia and a B.A. with Highest Honors in psychology and Spanish from the University of Michigan.

*To learn more about the workshop, please visit our workshop website: http://cas.uchicago.edu/workshops/eastasia/

*Subscribe or unsubscribe to the workshop mailing-list at: https://lists.uchicago.edu/web/info/east-asia

*Questions and concerns can be addressed to the student coordinator Haitong Xu (xuhaitong@uchciago.edu) and Yang Xiang (xiangalan@uchicago.edu)

Faculty sponsors:

Xi Song (Sociology), xisong@uchicago.edu

Dali Yang (Political Science), daliyang@uchicago.edu

Dingxin Zhao (Sociology), dzhao@uchicago.edu

The East Asia Workshop is sponsored by the Council on Advanced Studies in Humanities and Social Sciences. Persons with disabilities who believe they may need assistance please contact the student coordinator in advance.

East Asia Workshop: Politics, Economy and Society presents

“Authoritarian Hawks: Authoritarianism as Microfoundations for Hawkish Foreign Policy Preferences in China”

Xunchao Zhang

Analyst at Program on Political Violence (PPV) at CPOST

University of Chicago

4:30-6:00p.m., Tuesday, October 3^rd, 2017

Pick Lounge, 5828 South University Ave.

*Light refreshments will be provided*

Abstract

Who are the foreign policy hawks in China? Existing literature focuses on nationalism as an explanation for popular hawkishness. However, recent empirical examination of survey data has challenged the notion of rising nationalism as a source of Chinese hawkishness. Drawing on political psychology literature, I seek to explain the hawkish preferences of ordinary Chinese citizens as the consequence of a popular illiberal authoritarian ideology, rather than nationalism. There is scant literature examining the political manifestations of authoritarian dispositions in the foreign policy domain, and moreover, international relations (IR) researchers have paid more attention to authoritarian regimes as opposed to individuals who subscribe to authoritarian ideology. Hence, this paper is an attempt to bridge the authoritarian personality literature and the IR study of hawkishness. Using data generated by a large-scale opt-in survey as well as an original causal mediation experiment fielded in China, I argue that individual foreign policy hawkishness is a result of externalization of domestic authoritarianism political values, particularly collectivism and punitiveness

.

*To learn more about the workshop, please visit our workshop website: http://cas.uchicago.edu/workshops/eastasia/

*Subscribe or unsubscribe to the workshop mailing-list at: https://lists.uchicago.edu/web/info/east-asia

*Questions and concerns can be addressed to the student coordinator Haitong Xu (xuhaitong@uchciago.edu) and Yang Xiang (xiangalan@uchicago.edu)

Faculty sponsors:

Xi Song (Sociology), xisong@uchicago.edu

Dali Yang (Political Science), daliyang@uchicago.edu

Dingxin Zhao (Sociology), dzhao@uchicago.edu

The East Asia Workshop is sponsored by the Council on Advanced Studies in Humanities and Social Sciences. Persons with disabilities who believe they may need assistance please contact the student coordinator in advance.

EAST ASIA WORKSHOP: POLITICS, ECONOMY & SOCIETY

Autumn 2017 Workshop Schedule

October 3

“Authoritarianism as Microfoundations for Hawkish Foreign Policy Preferences in China”

Xunchao Zhang

Analyst at Program on Political Violence (PPV) at CPOST

University of Chicago

October 17

“The rice theory of culture: Evidence historical rice farming shaped culture in southern China”

Thomas Telhelm

Assistant Professor of Behavioral Science

University of Chicago

October 27

“A Fence on which We can Rely: Asserting Sovereignty in Early Twentieth Century Southwest China”

Collaborate Event with the East Asia: Transregional Histories Workshop

Scott Relyea

Assistant Professor, Department of History

Appalachian State University

October 31

“Threats from Within Assessing the Diversionary Escalation Theory”

Wenyan Deng

Data Manager

University of Chicago

November 14

“Born-Global: Why Small Firms Love International Trade”

Wu Haichao

MAPSS Student

University of Chicago

November 28

“Biding Seats for High School Admissions In China”

Congyi Zhou & Tong Wang

PhD of the Harris School of Public Policy

University of Chicago

Unless otherwise stated, the East Asia Workshop meets on Every Other Tuesday 4:30-6pm at Pick Lounge, 5828 South University Avenue. This workshop features interdisciplinary scholarship addressing topics relating to social, political, economic as well as cultural matters and issues in East Asia. Our presenters come from various disciplines such as sociology, political science, economics, anthropology, history, etc. The goal of this workshop is to foster communication and collaboration among students and scholars whose interest lies in East Asia at the University of Chicago and in the wider East Asian Studies community.

* Abstract or description of each presentation will be posted on our website: http://cas.uchicago.edu/workshops/eastasia

* Questions and comments can be addressed to the student coordinators Haitong Xu: xuhaitong@uchicago.edu and Yang Xiang: xiangalan@uchicago.edu

* Subscribe or unsubscribe to our workshop mailing-list at: https://lists.uchicago.edu/web/info/east-asia

Faculty Sponsors:

Xi Song (Sociology), xisong@uchicago.edu

Dali Yang (Political Science), daliyang@uchicago.edu

Dingxin Zhao (Sociology), dzhao@uchicago.edu

The East Asia Workshop is sponsored by the Council on Advanced Studies in Humanities and Social Sciences. Persons with disabilities who believe they may need assistance please contact the student coordinator in advance.