Selected publications

Climate and infectious disease dynamics

Santos-Vega M., P. Martinez, M.J. Bouma, V.J. Vaishnav, V. Kohli, V. Desai, M. Pascual. 2022. The neglected role of relative humidity in the interannual variability of urban malaria in Indian cities. Nature Communications 13:533.

Fontal, A., M.J. Bouma, A. San José, M. Pascual, and X. Rodó. 2021. COVID19 is a seasonal climate-driven disease across both hemispheres. Nature Computational Science 1: 655665.

M. Pascual and A. Baeza. 2021. Malaria: what happens when forests fall? eLife 10:e67863.

Rodó, X., P. P. Martinez, A. Siraj, and M. Pascual. 2021. Malaria trends in Ethiopian highlands track the 2000 ‘slowdown’ in global warming. Nature Communications Mar 10;12:1555.

Gillespie, T.R., K.E. Jones, A.P. Dobson, J.A. Clennon, and M.Pascual. 2021. COVID-clarity demands uni cation of health and environmental policy. Global Change Biology 27(7):1319-1321.

Lowe, R., S. Lee, R. Martins Lana, C. Torres Codeo, M,C. Castro, M. Pascual. 2020. Emerging arboviruses in the urbanized Amazon rainforest. BMJ, Special Issue on Climate Change and Infectious Diseases 371:m4385.

Martinez, P., A.S. Mahmudi, Md. Yunus, A.S.G. Faruque, T. Ahmed, M. Pascual and C.O. Buckee. 2019. Tubewell use protects against rotavirus infection during the monsoons in an urban setting. The Journal of Infectious Diseases 200(50): 1-9.

Castro, M.C., A. Baeza, C.T. Codeco, Z.M. Cucunuba, A.P. DalAsta, et al. 2019. Development, environmental degradation, and disease spread in the Brazilian Amazon. PLOS Biology 17(11): e3000526.

Martinez, P. P., A. A. King, M. Yunus, A. Faruque, and M. Pascual. 2016a. Differential and enhanced response to climate forcing in diarrheal disease due to rotavirus across a megacity of the developing world. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences:201518977.

Santos-Vega, M., P. P. Martinez, and M. Pascual. 2016b. Climate forcing and infectious disease transmission in urban landscapes: integrating demographic and socioeconomic heterogeneity. Annals of the New York Academy of Sciences 1382:44–55.

Martinez, P. P., R. C. Reiner Jr, M. Roy, B. A. Cash, M. Yunus, A. Faruque, S. Huq, A. A. King, and M. Pascual. 2016b. Cholera forecast for Dhaka, Bangladesh, with the 2016 El Niño. Plos One (in press)

Baracchini, T., A. A. King, M. J. Bouma, X. Rodó, E. Bertuzzo, and M. Pascual. 2016. Seasonality in cholera dynamics: A rainfall-driven model explains the wide range of patterns in endemic areas. Advances in water resources.

Santos-Vega, M., M. J. Bouma, V. Kohli, and M. Pascual. 2016a. Population density, climate variables and poverty synergistically structure spatial risk in urban malaria in India. PLoS neglected tropical diseases 10:e0005155.

Roy, M., M. Bouma, R. C. Dhiman, and M. Pascual. 2015. Predictability of epidemic malaria under non-stationary conditions with process-based models combining epidemiological updates and climate variability. Malaria journal 14:419.

Siraj, A. S., M. J. Bouma, M. Santos-Vega, A. K. Yeshiwondim, D. S. Rothman, D. Yadeta, P. C. Sutton, and M. Pascual. 2015. Temperature and population density determine reservoir regions of seasonal persistence in highland malaria. Page 20151383 Proc. R. Soc. B. The Royal Society.

Baeza, A., M. J. Bouma, R. Dhiman, and M. Pascual. 2014. Malaria control under unstable dynamics: Reactive vs. climate-based strategies. Acta tropica 129:42–51.

Siraj, A. S., M. Santos-Vega, M. J. Bouma, D. Yadeta, D. R. Carrascal, and M. Pascual. 2014. Altitudinal changes in malaria incidence in highlands of Ethiopia and Colombia. Science 343:1154–1158.

Cash, B. A., X. Rodó, J. Ballester, M. J. Bouma, A. Baeza, R. Dhiman, and M. Pascual. 2013. Malaria epidemics and the influence of the tropical South Atlantic on the Indian monsoon. Nature climate change 3:502–507.

Roy, M., M. J. Bouma, E. L. Ionides, R. C. Dhiman, and M. Pascual. 2013a. The potential elimination of Plasmodium vivax malaria by relapse treatment: insights from a transmission model and surveillance data from NW India. PLoS neglected tropical diseases 7:e1979.

Baeza, A., M. J. Bouma, R. C. Dhiman, E. B. Baskerville, P. Ceccato, R. S. Yadav, and M. Pascual. 2013. Long-lasting transition toward sustainable elimination of desert malaria under irrigation development. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences 110:15157–15162.

Reiner, R. C., A. A. King, M. Emch, M. Yunus, A. Faruque, and M. Pascual. 2012. Highly localized sensitivity to climate forcing drives endemic cholera in a megacity. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences 109:2033–2036.

Bhadra, A., E. L. Ionides, K. Laneri, M. Pascual, M. Bouma, and R. C. Dhiman. 2011. Malaria in Northwest India: Data analysis via partially observed stochastic differential equation models driven by Lévy noise. Journal of the American Statistical Association 106:440–451.

Alonso, D., M. J. Bouma, and M. Pascual. 2011. Epidemic malaria and warmer temperatures in recent decades in an East African highland. Proceedings of the Royal Society of London B: Biological Sciences 278:1661–1669.

Laneri, K., A. Bhadra, E. L. Ionides, M. Bouma, R. C. Dhiman, R. S. Yadav, and M. Pascual. 2010. Forcing versus feedback: epidemic malaria and monsoon rains in northwest India. PLoS computational biology 6:e1000898.

Artzy-Randrup, Y., D. Alonso, and M. Pascual. 2010. Transmission intensity and drug resistance in malaria population dynamics: implications for climate change. PloS one 5:e13588.

Pascual, M., B. Cazelles, M. J. Bouma, L. F. Chaves, and K. Koelle. 2008a. Shifting patterns: malaria dynamics and rainfall variability in an African highland. Proceedings of the Royal Society of London B: Biological Sciences 275:123–132.

Chaves, L. F., and M. Pascual. 2007a. Comparing models for early warning systems of neglected tropical diseases. PLoS neglected tropical diseases 1:e33.

Chaves, L. F., and M. Pascual. 2006. Climate cycles and forecasts of cutaneous leishmaniasis, a nonstationary vector-borne disease. PLoS medicine 3:e295.

Pascual, M., J. A. Ahumada, L. F. Chaves, X. Rodo, and M. Bouma. 2006a. Malaria resurgence in the East African highlands: temperature trends revisited. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences 103:5829–5834.

Koelle, K., X. Rodó, M. Pascual, M. Yunus, and G. Mostafa. 2005. Refractory periods and climate forcing in cholera dynamics. Nature 436:696–700.

Koelle, K., M. Pascual, and M. Yunus. 2005. Pathogen adaptation to seasonal forcing and climate change. Proceedings of the Royal Society of London B: Biological Sciences 272:971–977.

Rodó, X., M. Pascual, G. Fuchs, and A. Faruque. 2002. ENSO and cholera: A nonstationary link related to climate change? Proceedings of the national Academy of Sciences 99:12901–12906.

Pascual, M., X. Rodó, S. P. Ellner, R. Colwell, and M. J. Bouma. 2000. Cholera dynamics and El Nino-southern oscillation. Science 289:1766–1769.

Population dynamics of infectious diseases

Romeo-Aznar V., L. Picinini Freitas, O. Gonalves Cruz, A.A. King, and M. Pascual. 2022. Finescale heterogeneity in population density predicts wave dynamics in dengue epidemics. Nature Communications 13:996.

Subramanian, R., Q. He, and M. Pascual. 2021. Quantifying asymptomatic infection and transmission of COVID-19 in New York City using observed cases, serology, and testing capacity. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences 118:e2019716118.

Subramanian, R., V. Romeo-Aznar, E. Ionides, C.T. Codeço, and M. Pascual. 2020. Predicting re-emergence times of dengue epidemics at low reproductive numbers: DENV1 in Rio de Janeiro, 1986–1990. Journal of the Royal Society Interface 17:20200273.

Alonso, D., A. Dobson and M. Pascual. 2019. Critical transitions in malaria transmission are consistently generated by superinfection. Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society of London B 374, 1775.

Romeo-Aznar, V., R. Paul, O. Telle, and M. Pascual. 2018. Mosquito-borne transmission in urban landscapes: the missing link between vector abundance and human density. Proceedings of the Royal Society B 285:20180826.

Artzy-Randrup, Y., A. P. Dobson, and M. Pascual. 2015. Synergistic and antagonistic interactions between bednets and vaccines in the control of malaria. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences 112:3014–3019.

Roy, M., R. D. Zinck, M. J. Bouma, and M. Pascual. 2014. Epidemic cholera spreads like wildfire. Scientific reports 4:3710.

King, A. A., E. L. Ionides, M. Pascual, and M. J. Bouma. 2008. Inapparent infections and cholera dynamics. Nature 454:877–880.

Aparicio, J. P., and M. Pascual. 2007. Building epidemiological models from R0: an implicit treatment of transmission in networks. Proceedings of the Royal Society of London B: Biological Sciences 274:505–512.

Alonso, D., A. J. McKane, and M. Pascual. 2007. Stochastic amplification in epidemics. Journal of the Royal Society, Interface / the Royal Society 4:575–582.

Koelle, K., M. Pascual, and M. Yunus. 2006b. Serotype cycles in cholera dynamics. Proceedings of the Royal Society of London B: Biological Sciences 273:2879–2886.

Roy, M., and M. Pascual. 2006. On representing network heterogeneities in the incidence rate of simple epidemic models. Ecological Complexity 3:80–90.

Koelle, K., and M. Pascual. 2004. Disentangling extrinsic from intrinsic factors in disease dynamics: a nonlinear time series approach with an application to cholera. The American naturalist 163:901–913.

Eco-evolutionary dynamics: pathogen diversity

He, Q., S. Pilosof, K. Tiedje, K. Day, and M. Pascual. 2021. Frequency-Dependent Competition Between Strains Imparts Persistence to Perturbations in a Model of Plasmodium falciparum Malaria Transmission. Frontiers in Ecology and Evolution 9:319.

He, Q. and M. Pascual. 2021. An antigenic diversification threshold for falciparum malaria transmission at high endemicity. PLOS Computational Biology 17(2): e1008729.

Pilosof, S., S.A. Alcalá-Corona, T. Wang, T. Kim, S. Maslov, R. Whitaker, and M. Pascual. 2018. The network structure and eco-evolutionary dynamics of CRISPR-induced immune diversification. Nature Ecology and Evolution 4:1650–1660.

He, Q., S. Pilosof, K.E. Tiedje, S. Ruybal-Pesántez, Y. Artzy-Randrup, E.B. Baskerville, K.P. Day, and M. Pascual. 2018. Networks of genetic similarity reveal non-neutral processes shape strain structure in Plasmodium falciparum. Nature Communications 9:1817.

Zinder, D., T. Bedford, E. B. Baskerville, R. J. Woods, M. Roy, and M. Pascual. 2014. Seasonality in the migration and establishment of H3N2 Influenza lineages with epidemic growth and decline. BMC evolutionary biology 14:272.

Rorick, M. M., T. S. Rask, E. B. Baskerville, K. P. Day, and M. Pascual. 2013. Homology blocks of Plasmodium falciparum var genes and clinically distinct forms of severe malaria in a local population. BMC microbiology 13:244.

Zinder, D., T. Bedford, S. Gupta, and M. Pascual. 2013. The roles of competition and mutation in shaping antigenic and genetic diversity in influenza. PLoS pathogens 9:e1003104.

Rorick, M. M., and M. Pascual. 2013. Influenza evolution navigates stability valleys. eLife 2:e00842.

Artzy-Randrup, Y., and M. Pascual. 2014. Composite temporal strategies in pathogen evolution: balancing invasion and persistence. Theoretical Ecology 7:325–334.

Artzy-Randrup, Y., M. M. Rorick, K. Day, D. Chen, A. P. Dobson, and M. Pascual. 2012. Population structuring of multi-copy, antigen-encoding genes in Plasmodium falciparum. eLife 1:e00093.

Bedford, T., A. Rambaut, and M. Pascual. 2012. Canalization of the evolutionary trajectory of the human influenza virus. BMC biology 10:38.

Bedford, T., S. Cobey, and M. Pascual. 2011. Strength and tempo of selection revealed in viral gene genealogies. BMC evolutionary biology 11:220.

Cobey, S., and M. Pascual. 2011. Consequences of host heterogeneity, epitope immunodominance, and immune breadth for strain competition. Journal of theoretical biology 270:80–87.

Bedford, T., S. Cobey, P. Beerli, and M. Pascual. 2010. Global migration dynamics underlie evolution and persistence of human influenza A (H3N2). PLoS pathogens 6:e1000918.

Cobey, S., M. Pascual, and U. Dieckmann. 2010. Ecological factors driving the long-term evolution of influenza’s host range. Proceedings of the Royal Society of London B: Biological Sciences 277:2803–2810.

Koelle, K., S. Cobey, B. Grenfell, and M. Pascual. 2006a. Epochal evolution shapes the phylodynamics of interpandemic influenza A (H3N2) in humans. Science 314:1898–1903.

Ecological networks

Pilosof, S., S.A. Alcalá-Corona, T. Wang, T. Kim, S. Maslov, R. Whitaker, M. Pascual. 2020. The network structure and eco-evolutionary dynamics of CRISPR-induced immune diversification. Nature Ecology and Evolution,

Pilosof, S., M. A. Porter, M. Pascual, and S. Kéfi. 2017. The Multilayer Nature of Ecological Networks. Nature Ecology and Evolution.

Golubski, A. J., E. E. Westlund, J. Vandermeer, and M. Pascual. 2016. Ecological networks over the edge: hypergraph trait-mediated indirect interaction (TMII) structure. Trends in ecology & evolution 31:344–354.

Baskerville, E. B., A. P. Dobson, T. Bedford, S. Allesina, T. M. Anderson, and M. Pascual. 2011. Spatial guilds in the Serengeti food web revealed by a Bayesian group model. PLoS computational biology 7:e1002321.

Warren, C. P., M. Pascual, K. D. Lafferty, and A. M. Kuris. 2010. The inverse niche model for food webs with parasites. Theoretical Ecology 3:285–294.

Dobson, A., S. Allesina, K. Lafferty, and M. Pascual. 2009. The assembly, collapse and restoration of food webs. Philosophical transactions of the Royal Society of London. Series B, Biological sciences 364:1803–1806.

Allesina, S., and M. Pascual. 2009a. Googling food webs: can an eigenvector measure species’ importance for coextinctions? PLoS computational biology 5:e1000494.

Allesina, S., and M. Pascual. 2009b. Food web models: a plea for groups. Ecology letters 12:652–662.

Allesina, S., A. Bodini, and M. Pascual. 2009. Functional links and robustness in food webs. Philosophical transactions of the Royal Society of London. Series B, Biological sciences 364:1701–1709.

Allesina, S., D. Alonso, and M. Pascual. 2008. A general model for food web structure. Science 320:658–661.

Lafferty, K. D., S. Allesina, M. Arim, C. J. Briggs, G. De Leo, A. P. Dobson, J. A. Dunne, P. T. J. Johnson, A. M. Kuris, D. J. Marcogliese, and Others. 2008. Parasites in food webs: the ultimate missing links. Ecology letters 11:533–546.

Allesina, S., and M. Pascual. 2008. Network structure, predator–prey modules, and stability in large food webs. Theoretical Ecology 1:55–64.

Pascual, M., and J. A. Dunne. 2006a. Ecological networks: linking structure to dynamics in food webs. Oxford University Press.

Networks: Linking Structure to Dynamics in Food Webs. Oxford University Press, Oxford:245–270.

Ecology (general): criticality, scaling and nonlinear responses to environmental forcing

D’Souza, K., B. I. Epureanu, and M. Pascual. 2015. Forecasting bifurcations from large perturbation recoveries in feedback ecosystems. PloS one 10:e0137779.

Scheffer, M., S. R. Carpenter, T. M. Lenton, J. Bascompte, W. Brock, V. Dakos, J. Van De Koppel, I. A. Van De Leemput, S. A. Levin, E. H. Van Nes, and Others. 2012. Anticipating critical transitions. Science 338:344–348.

Pascual, M., M. Roy, and K. Laneri. 2011. Simple models for complex systems: exploiting the relationship between local and global densities. Theoretical Ecology 4:211–222.

Zinck, R. D., M. Pascual, and V. Grimm. 2011. Understanding shifts in wildfire regimes as emergent threshold phenomena. The American naturalist 178:E149–E161.

Kéfi, S., M. Rietkerk, M. Roy, A. Franc, P. C. De Ruiter, and M. Pascual. 2011. Robust scaling in ecosystems and the meltdown of patch size distributions before extinction. Ecology letters 14:29–35.

Alonso, D., and M. Pascual. 2006. Comment on “A keystone mutualism drives pattern in a power function.” Science 313:1739b–1739b.

Peacor, S. D., S. Allesina, R. L. Riolo, and M. Pascual. 2006a. Phenotypic plasticity opposes species invasions by altering fitness surface. PLoS biology 4:e372.

Pascual, M., and F. Guichard. 2005a. Classical criticality in disturbed ecological systems: some key concepts. Trends in ecology & evolution 2:88–95.

Pascual, M., and F. Guichard. 2005b. Criticality and disturbance in spatial ecological systems. Trends in ecology & evolution 20:88–95.

Pascual, M. 2005. Computational ecology: from the complex to the simple and back. PLoS computational biology 1:e18.

Coulson, T., P. Rohani, and M. Pascual. 2004a. Skeletons, noise and population growth: the end of an old debate? Trends in ecology & evolution 19:359–364.

Pascual, M., and P. Mazzega. 2003. Quasicycles revisited: apparent sensitivity to initial conditions. Theoretical population biology 64:385–395.

Roy, M., M. Pascual, and A. Franc. 2003. Broad scaling region in a spatial ecological system. Complexity 8:19–27.

Pascual, M., M. Roy, and A. Franc. 2002b. Simple temporal models for ecological systems with complex spatial patterns. Ecology letters 5:412–419.

Pascual, M., M. Roy, F. Guichard, and G. Flierl. 2002c. Cluster size distributions: signatures of self–organization in spatial ecologies. Philosophical transactions of the Royal Society of London. Series B, Biological sciences 357:657–666.

Pascual, M., P. Mazzega, and S. A. Levin. 2001. Oscillatory dynamics and spatial scale: the role of noise and unresolved pattern. Ecology 82:2357–2369.

Pascual, M., and S. P. Ellner. 2000. Linking ecological patterns to environmental forcing via nonlinear time series models. Ecology 81:2767–2780.

Pascual, M., and S. A. Levin. 1999a. From individuals to population densities: searching for the intermediate scale of nontrivial determinism. Ecology 80:2225–2236.

Pascual, M., and S. A. Levin. 1999b. Spatial scaling in a benthic population model with density-dependent disturbance. Theoretical population biology 56:106–122.

Pascual, M., and H. Caswell. 1997a. From the cell cycle to population cycles in phytoplankton–nutrient interactions. Ecology 78:897–912.

Pascual, M., and H. Caswell. 1997b. Environmental heterogeneity and biological pattern in a chaotic predator–prey system. Journal of theoretical biology 185:1–13.

Pascual, M., F. A. Ascioti, and H. Caswell. 1996. Intermittency in the plankton: a multifractal analysis of zooplankton biomass variability. Oceanographic Literature Review 2:167–168.

Pascual, M., F. A. Ascioti, and H. Caswell. 1995. Intermittency in the plankton: a multifractal analysis of zooplankton biomass variability. Journal of plankton research 17:1209–1232.

Pascual, M. 1993. Diffusion-Induced Chaos in a Spatial Predator–Prey System. Proceedings of the Royal Society of London B: Biological Sciences 251:1–7.