New paper

New paper (w/ Zhengyang Xu): Dynamics of Subjective Risk Premia. While objective risk premia extracted from standard in-sample predictive regressions are highly cyclical, we show that subjective risk premia extracted from individual and professional return forecasts in stock, bond, FX, and commodity futures markets are close to acylical. Out-of-sample forecasts of excess returns get close to matching the weak cyclicality of subjective risk premia.