By Carolyn Castroblanco, Fall 2020.
On August 26, 2005, over 1 million people were forced to evacuate their homes across Mississippi and Louisiana in preparation for the now infamous Hurricane Katrina. This category five storm ravaged the Southeast coast of the United States, caused at least 1800 deaths, and is responsible for $81 billion in property damage. [1] Since then, hurricanes across the globe have only increased in both intensity and frequency, with the number of flood and storm disasters increasing by 7.4% annually in recent decades. [2]
The sobering reality is that all types of natural disasters are increasing in severity. With respect to hurricanes, major storms are classified on the Saffir-Simpson wind scale rated from category three to category five (111 mph sustained winds and above). [3] In recent years, these major storms have accounted for a greater percentage of global tropical cyclones based upon satellite imagery data from 1979 through the present, lending support to the assertion that hurricanes are more prominent now than ever before. [4]
Hurricanes are not the only natural disaster where we are seeing an increase in intensity over the past few decades, however. On the West Coast, wildfires have persisted far past their seasonally expected durations; throughout California, Oregon, and Washington, over five million acres of land have burned in some of the largest fires ever recorded. [5] Not only are these fires larger than in past decades, but they are persisting for longer periods of time while becoming increasingly more unpredictable in terms of when they will occur.
At the same time, flood zones are also expanding throughout the nation. According to the First Street Foundation, a non-profit group dedicated to defining America’s flood risk, the United States is expected to experience up to a 260% increase of substantial risk of flooding between now and 2050. [8] This encompasses primarily coastal cities, but moves inland at an alarming rate, leaving few territories firmly above water in the coming years.
Despite this clear upward trend in the severity of natural disasters, weather-related deaths are at an all time low. This light at the end of the proverbial tunnel comes at a time when the world population is reaching new heights on a daily basis. The citizens of the world, expected to reach a peak of nearly eleven billion by 2100, are not equally affected by natural disasters but are still prone to them at alarming rates. [9] For instance, coastal areas in the U.S. are more densely populated than ever before, with around 127 million people or 40% of Americans living in coastal counties. [10] These areas are highly susceptible to a unique host of natural disasters including floods, hurricanes, tsunamis, and rising sea levels.
While coastal cities are more vulnerable to natural disasters, there has not been a corresponding increase in mortality rates. Similarly striking is California’s current population: with 39.78 million citizens at the beginning of 2020 (roughly the same population as Iraq) this state boasts the nation’s highest population. [11] However, the recent uptick in wildfires across this populous state has not yielded a proportionately high number of casualties. [12]
This disproportionate fatality rate has fortunately been a trend across the nation within the past few decades. In fact, with little variation, the annual number of deaths caused by natural disasters around the globe has hovered around 10,000 since 2010 and has not exceeded 500,000 since the mid twentieth century. When compared to fifty years ago, this statistic is staggeringly low, and is made more impressive by the aforementioned rate of population growth over this time period. [13]. Attributable to improved emergency response plans, communication methods, and warning sirens, this downward trend in mortality rates is likely to continue for the foreseeable future.
While it may seem like this is a cause for celebration, these worsening natural disasters have resulted in costly and often irreparable levels of property damage. In the past five years, the frequency of billion dollar disasters has far exceeded the average of 6.6 events annually. In 2020, sixteen separate billion dollar weather/climate disaster events have occurred thus far, surpassing even the previous five year average of 13.8 such events annually. [14] In fact, the amount that the U.S. spends in 2020 on weather-related natural disasters may be on track to surpass their current 2017 record of $306 billion. [15]
While the loss of life in relation to climate events has dramatically decreased, entire communities are at a greater risk of losing their ways of life based on this increasing risk of property damage. How, in the face of these intensifying natural disasters, can we prevent this from becoming an irreversible reality of life? As with all great efforts, change can only come about after acknowledging the truth of the matter: by every metric, natural disasters are becoming more severe. As the extent of damage to lives and property continues to increase, Our focus now should turn to preparation and protection of those most at risk.
[1]: “Hurricane Katrina Case Study: Impacts.” Hurricanes: Science and Society. University of Rhode Island. Accessed November 3, 2020. http://hurricanescience.org/history/studies/katrinacase/impacts/.
[2]: Adebayo, Zainab. “Are Natural Disasters Getting Worse?” The Borgen Project. Clint Borgen https://borgenproject.org/wp-content/uploads/The_Borgen_Project_Logo_small.jpg, November 5, 2019. https://borgenproject.org/are-natural-disasters-getting-worse/.
[3]: “Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale.” National Hurricane Center: Wind Scale. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration. Accessed November 3, 2020. https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutsshws.php.
[4]: Emanuel, Kerry. “Evidence That Hurricanes Are Getting Stronger.” PNAS. National Academy of Sciences, June 16, 2020. https://www.pnas.org/content/117/24/13194.
[5]: Migliozzi, Blacki, Scott Reinhard, Nadja Popovich, Tim Wallace, and Allison Mccann. “Record Wildfires on the West Coast Are Capping a Disastrous Decade.” The New York Times. The New York Times, September 24, 2020. https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/09/24/climate/fires-worst-year-california-oregon-washington.html.
[6]: UN Environment. “Ten Impacts of the Australian Bushfires.” UN Environment, January 23, 2020. https://www.unenvironment.org/news-and-stories/story/ten-impacts-australian-bushfires.
[7]: Pedroso, Rodrigo, Fernanda Wenzel, and Marcia Reverdosa. “Unchecked Fires Could Turn the Amazon into a Savannah.” CNN. Cable News Network, September 10, 2020. https://www.cnn.com/2020/09/10/americas/brazil-amazon-fires-carlos-nobre-intl/index.html.
[8]: “The First National Flood Risk Assessment: Defining America’s Growing Risk.” First Street Foundation, 2020. https://assets.firststreet.org/uploads/2020/06/first_street_foundation__first_national_flood_risk_assessment.pdf.
[9]: Global Issues: Population.” United Nations. United Nations. Accessed November 4, 2020. https://www.un.org/en/sections/issues-depth/population/.
[10]: US Department of Commerce, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration. “What Percentage of the American Population Lives near the Coast?” NOAA’s National Ocean Service, October 31, 2019. https://oceanservice.noaa.gov/facts/population.html.
[11]: Associated Press. “Population Shrinks in California, Still Most Populous State.” U.S. News & World Report. U.S. News & World Report, May 1, 2020. https://www.usnews.com/news/best-states/california/articles/2020-05-01/population-shrinks-in-california-still-most-populous-state.
[12]: Migliozzi, Blacki, Scott Reinhard, Nadja Popovich, Tim Wallace, and Allison Mccann. “Record Wildfires on the West Coast Are Capping a Disastrous Decade.” The New York Times. The New York Times, September 24, 2020. https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/09/24/climate/fires-worst-year-california-oregon-washington.html.
[13]: Ritchie, Hannah, and Max Roser. “Natural Disasters.” Our World in Data, June 3, 2014. https://ourworldindata.org/natural-disasters.
[14]: “Billion-Dollar Weather and Climate Disasters: Overview.” National Climatic Data Center. Accessed November 3, 2020. https://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/billions/overview.
[15]: “Natural Disasters Cost U.S. A Record $306 Billion Last Year: Ocean Leadership.” Consortium for Ocean Leadership, August 23, 2019. http://oceanleadership.org/natural-disasters-cost-u-s-record-306-billion-last-year/.