Kariyushi Rao
Warwick Business School
University of Warwick, Scarman Road
Coventry CV4 7AL


The University of Chicago                                                                                         Chicago, IL
Doctor of Philosophy in Behavioral Science                                                               March 2021

  • Research interests: Causal reasoning, responsibility attribution, social networks
  • Dissertation area: Behavioral Science (support area: Organizations and Markets)
  • Dissertation: “Collective response to scarcity: How the resource environment
    shapes social networks.”
  • Advisors: Reid Hastie (Chair), Richard Thaler, Ronald S. Burt, Emir Kamenica, John Levi Martin, Michael Gibbs

Master of Science in Computer Science                                                               December 2016

  • Focus: Software Engineering
  • Languages: Java, Python, Ruby (on Rails), R, SQL, PHP, HTML, JavaScript, CSS

Master of Business Administration                                                                       December 2012

  • Concentrations: Organizational Behavior, Strategic Management, Economics, Entrepreneurship
  • Honors & awards: Dean’s Award of Distinction (2012)

Stanford University – Center for Professional Development                         Palo Alto, CA
Stanford Certified Project Manager (SCPM)                                                      November 2009

Bowdoin College                                                                                                  Brunswick, ME
Bachelor of Arts                                                                                                               May 2007

  • Majors: Government, Romance Languages (French & Spanish)
  • Minor: Asian Studies (East Asia)
  • International study: Institut d’études politiques de Toulouse, Spring 2006


Warwick Business School                                                                                    Coventry, UK
Houlden Postdoctoral Teaching & Research Fellow                          September 2022 – Present

  • Behavioural Science Group

The University of Chicago Booth School of Business                                         Chicago, IL
Graduate Research Assistant                                                                        May 2016 – Present

  • Reid Hastie, Ralph and Dorothy Keller Distinguished Service Professor of Behavioral Science
  • Emir Kamenica, Richard O. Ryan Professor of Economics, Neubauer Family
    Faculty Fellow
  • Richard Thaler, Charles R. Walgreen Distinguished Service Professor of
    Behavioral Science and Economics
  • Bernd Wittenbrink, Robert S. Hamada Professor of Behavioral Science

Kellogg School of Management at Northwestern University                          Evanston, IL
Postdoctoral Scholar, Center for Science of Science and Innovation     March–October 2021

  • Conducted research on the dynamics of failure using experimental and
    observational research methods


  • Teaching Assistant
    • The University of Chicago Booth School of Business, Full-Time, Part-Time, and
      Executive MBA Programs (Winter 2014 – Present): Strategies and Processes of
      Negotiation, Managerial Decision Making, Organizations and Incentives, Strategic Leadership, Managing the Workplace, New Venture Strategy, Effective
      Management of Groups and Teams, Power and Influence in Organizations
    • The University of Chicago Masters Program in Computer Science (Winter 2022–
      Spring 2022): Introduction to Software Engineering, Applied Software
      Engineering, Human-Computer Interaction
    • The College at the University of Chicago (Winter 2022): Managing in Organizations
    • Kellogg School of Management at Northwestern University, Full-Time MBA
      Program (Autumn 2020): Social Dynamics and Network Analysis
    • The University of Chicago Harris School of Public Policy, Double Executive
      Masters in Health Policy (Spring 2019): Leadership, Negotiation, and Advocacy in
      Health Policy: Strategies and Tactics
  • Member, PhD Program Student Advisory Committee, The Booth School of Business
  • Incoming PhD Student Mentor, The Booth School of Business (2017 – 2021)
  • Member, Dean’s Student Advisory Council, The University of Chicago Physical
    Sciences Division (2015 – 2016)


Rao, Kariyushi, and Hastie, Reid. (Revise & Resubmit). Predicting Outcomes in a
Sequence of Binary Events: Belief Updating and Gambler’s Fallacy Reasoning.

Available at SSRN 3597264
(Rao, K., & Hastie, R. (2020). Predicting Outcomes in a
Sequence of Binary Events: Belief Updating and Gambler’s Fallacy Reasoning).
Links: [Manuscript] [Supplement]
Description: Previous investigations of the hot hand and the gambler’s fallacies
conflated qualitative descriptions of an outcome-generating process with beliefs about
the base rate at which that process produces different outcomes. The present research distinguishes between beliefs about the causal generator versus beliefs about the base
rate. In six behavioral studies, we manipulate participants’ beliefs about the base rate of
three processes: a random mechanical device, an intentional agent, and a market. We
find that hot hand patterns arise when the base rate is uncertain, while gambler’s fallacy patterns only (partially) appear when people hold strong prior beliefs about the base
rate, and the data generating process is described as a random mechanical device.

Rao, Kariyushi. (In Preparation). Collective Response to Scarcity: How the Resource Environment Shapes Social Networks. Doctoral dissertation. Available through
(Rao, Kariyushi.The University of Chicago, ProQuest Dissertations Publishing,
2021. 28414556).
Links: [Dissertation Manuscript]
This dissertation investigates the underlying mechanisms that drive
changes in the structure of communication networks among strategic decision-makers confronted with changes in their resource environment. This investigation is carried
out through five experiments that engage human participants in a novel n-armed bandit
task either as individuals (Studies 1, 2A, and 2B) or as members of interactive groups
(Studies 3A and 3B). This research program makes several novel contributions. Primary
among these is an important refinement to the “scarcity” construct employed by a
number of disciplines across the social sciences. Despite a lack of consensus around the definition of scarcity, there is apparent agreement that a downward shift in resource
levels is a key component. The present experiments cleanly separate the effect of
downward shifts in resource levels from other components of the scarcity construct.
I find that a downward shift in resource levels alone is not sufficient to produce the
“scarcity effects” identified by prior research that did not control for comorbid
components of scarcity that often present as confounds. However, I find that
competition (Study 3B) does produce behaviors consistent with scarcity effects
(e.g. reduced information-seeking and information hoarding). I situate these results
in the context of the scarcity and social learning strategies literatures and discuss the implications for constructing a coherent definition of scarcity.

Rao, Kariyushi, Gerstenberg, Tobias, and Hastie, Reid. (In Preparation).  The
Surprise Effect: Attribution of Responsibility When Performance Violates

Description: We investigate the way knowledge of past performance affects attribution
of blame or credit for positive and negative outcomes in both individual and group
contexts. Our results indicate a “surprise effect” drives attributions following negative,
but not positive, outcomes. In the case of a loss, people assign more blame to high
performers than to low performers.  In the case of a win, people assign the same
amount of credit to both high and low performers.  We have confirmed this “surprise
effect” persists when targets are judged individually, when they are compared to a counterpart against whom they are competing, and when they are compared to a
teammate with whom they share a common goal.

Rao, Kariyushi. (In Preparation).  Theory-of-Mind Reasoning in P-Beauty Contests:
How Knowledge of Counterparts’ Experience and Expertise Matters.

Description: I investigate how knowledge of counterparts’ experience, intelligence,
and expertise affects players’ strategies in multiplayer p-beauty contests (Nagel,
1995) . Previous work has shown that players demonstrate higher levels of reasoning
when led to believe counterparts in a p-beauty-style game have high intelligence,
experience playing the game, and expertise relevant to the game (Agranov et al. 2012;
Alaoui & Penta 2015). Through an online conceptual replication of Agranov and
colleagues’ (2012) offline experimental procedure, I seek to disentangle the effects
of beliefs about counterparts’ intelligence, expertise, and experience on players’
in-game strategies.  Players led to believe counterparts were computers selecting
random numbers used different in-game strategies than players given no information
about their counterparts.  However, I do not find that players demonstrate higher
levels of reasoning when led to believe their counterparts have higher-than-average intelligence, direct experience, relevant expertise, or all three of these qualities.  Generalizability from participants’ behaviors in offline p-beauty-style games to
participants’ behaviors in an online environment are discussed.


Outstanding TA Award, EXP-27, XP-91, The University of Chicago Booth School
of Business Executive MBA Program.  June 2022.

Scarcity: How the Resource Environment Shapes Social Networks”, National Science Foundation (NSF) Award #2018173, $39,191, 08/2020 – 07/2021.

PI, “Theory-of-Mind Reasoning in P-Beauty Contests: How Knowledge of
Counterparts’ Experience and Expertise Matters,” Center for Decision Research,
The University of Chicago Booth School of Business, $3,000.  Winter 2018.


“Collective response to scarcity: How the resource environment shapes social
networks,” The Theoretical Organizational Modeling Society Conference.
Rome, Italy.  June 2022.

“Predicting outcomes in a sequence of binary events: A belief-updating account of
hot hand and gamblers fallacy judgment patterns,” The Society for Judgment and
Decision Making Conference.  Montréal, QC, Canada.  November 2019.

“Women at Work: Challenges and Opportunities,” Power of Women Inaugural
Meeting.  AllianceBernstein.  Chicago, IL.  June 2018.


  • Statistical analysis languages and software: R, HLM, MMWS, Stata, SPSS
  • Web-based experimental design languages, platforms, and software: oTree,
    Django, psiTurk, HTML, JavaScript, CSS, Ruby (on Rails), Qualtrics, Mechanical
    Turk, Heroku, AWS
  • Programming languages: Java, Python, SQL
  • Human languages: Intermediate French (conversation, reading), intermediate
    Spanish (conversation, reading), native English


Inventor.  Methods, Systems and Media for Presenting Commerce Information Related
to Video Content. October 15, 2015.
  U.S. Patent Number 20150296250.  Europe Patent
Number WO2015157714.


Google, Inc.                                  Mountain View, CA (2007-08) / Chicago, IL (2008-2015)
The ZOO, Global Creative Services Team                                                                  2011 – 2015

  • Account Director (January 2014 – April 2015): Developed and implemented large-scale, global advertising and marketing programs (min $2M investment) for Google’s
    top clients.
  • Interactive Project Manager / Producer (October 2011 – February 2014): Led
    development and launch of large-scale advertising programs and custom
    mobile/web platforms (min $1.5M client investment).

Global Learning and Development                                                                            2013 – 2015

  • (Volunteer) Global Program Manager: Managed global project management training program (100+ volunteer trainers, 120+ sessions a year), developed curriculum, and designed and delivered custom programs.

Affiliate Network                                                                                                          2008 – 2011

  • Business Strategist (May 2010 – October 2011): Managed team of 10 offshore
    contractors. Streamlined key business processes, and developed actionable business intelligence tools.
  • Publisher Support Associate (December 2008 – June 2010): Managed client-facing
    help center, authored technical articles, delivered reactive and proactive support to
    site-owners and merchants.

People Operations                                                                                                      2007 – 2008

  • HR Business Partner Rotational Associate (May 2008 – December 2008): Led human resources analytics and staffing programs and projects. Led global overhaul of
    engineering job ladders.
  • People Programs Rotational Associate (July 2007 – May 2008): Managed hiring
    process and advised senior executives on hiring decisions.