Most of my non-academic writing is in Russian. I’ve been writing a column for Vedomosti/VTimes in 2004-2021, about four hundred columns in total, and have contributed to many Russian media – until most of them were closed by the government. I write a blog on economics and politics, focusing both on current events and research – this is best followed via my Facebook page. (Most posts are copied to my Telegram channel as well.) I also wrote “When the Oil Runs Out“, a book that popularizes economics research, in Russian.

In English, I have a Twitter account. Below are English-language Op-Eds and columns.

Recent Op-Eds

Making Sense of the Russia’s War Economy, for Project Syndicate, October 2024. 

The Kursk Offensive Exposes Russian Military Weakness and Public Apathy, for The National Interest, September 2024. Russian military is stunned, Russian public does not care, and Putin is under no pressure to change the course.

Why Pavel Durov’s Detention Shook Both the Russian Opposition and Putin’s Regime, for The Moscow Times, August 2024. Pavel Durov’s a complicated mix of leadership and compromise. It’s funny that his detractors and his supporters come across the political spectrum around the world.

How NATO Can Help End the Ukraine War, for Project Syndicate, August 2024. NATO can strengthen Ukraine’s hand in peace negotiations by committing to admit Ukraine to NATO “as is”. Joint with Roger Myerson and Timothiy Mylovanov.

Vasily Utkin – Dead at 52 – Revolutionized More Than Just Football, for The Moscow Times, March 2024. My tribute to a person who was born the same year as I and yet was my youth hero.

How the Putin Phenomenon Happened by Accident, for The Moscow Times, March 2024. Putin’s personality, plain, mediocre and uncharismatic, cannot explain why the system coalesced and eventually cemented around him.

Electoral College and Election Fraud, for Cato Institute. In defense of the Electoral College, which did help the democrats (and everyone else) in 2020.

Russia Will Suffer Decreases in Every Dimension of Prosperity, for the Atlantic Council, February 2024. Freedom and prosperity indices move slowly, but tell a pretty consistent story.

Worried about Election Fraud? Protect the Electoral College, for The Hill, September 2023. The electoral college forces to “steal” votes where it is difficult and costly. Joint with Kellogg’s Georgy Egorov.

Sympathy for the Oligarch, for Project Syndicate, August 2023. Oligarchs are not a cause, but a consequence of the Soviet economy collapse. They tried to do what businessmen are supposed to do.

Why There Will Be No Negotiating with Putin, for The Moscow Times, August 2023. First, he doesn’t understand how the world sees the war, and cannot know it. Second, he has no way to commit himself to whatever promise he would want to make.

How Russia Could Benefit from Ukraine’s NATO Membership, for Project Syndicate, July 2023. While Putin  cited NATO enlargement as a justification for war, ordinary Russians have much to gain from Ukrainian membership: less military spending, easier return to the global economy, and less incentives for future leaders to pursue a revanchist agenda.

The Failed Wagner Coup Shows Russia’s Elites Are Ready for Violent Regime Change, for Novaya Gazeta. Europe, June 2023. The most interesting thing during the mutiny was the total silence of the Russian elites, including for hours after the Putin’s address.

The Wagner Uprising Left Putin Isolated, for The Spectator, June 2023. Putin has built an enormous security apparatus around himself; most of it stayed neutral during the mutiny.

Stop Victim-Blaming Russian Refugees, for The Moscow Times, April 2023. Ukrainians are the main victims of the Putin’s war, and they need help and support in the first place. Yet Russians fleeing war and repression are victims as well.

Russia’s Road to Economic Ruin, for Foreign Affairs, November 2022. Putin is setting up Russia for turf wars over businesses and financial assets for years to come. 1990s will pale in comparison.

When Policy Advice Fails, Aims of Public Policy address, Harris School, September 2022. I’ve spent twenty years advocating for important causes in Russia, in vain.

Russia’s Crony Capitalism Disincentivises Economic Reform, for The Economist‘s By Invitation. September 2022. Putin wouldn’t be able to Put the Russian economy on the war footing; it runs against everything he has been building for 20+ years.

What Putin’s Invasion of Ukraine Looks Like for Everyday Russians, an interview for UChicago News. March 2022.  In short, how did it feel in Russia in 2021-22.

“There Is No Good Scenario”: Russian Economist Says Sanctions Have Hit Hard, an interview for Der Spiegel. March 2022. The third day of war.

Biden-Putin Summit Advice: Sit in the Mud, but Reach for the Stars for Bulletin of Atomic Scientists. June 2021. The mud it is.

Biden’s Plea for Masks Will Fail. Blame Political Polarization for Washington Post. April 2021. An Op-Ed based on “Unmasking Partisanship”. If only former President Trump pleaded for wearing masks…

Political Polarisation Impedes the Public Policy Response to COVID-19 for VoxEU. December 2020. A column based on our “Unmasking Partisanship” paper.

Stimulus Funds Really Do Keep People Home, Our Research Finds  for Washington Post’s Monkey Cage, November 2020. A column based on our JEBO “poverty and economic dislocation” paper. In poorer communities, people comply less with shelter-in-place ordinances. 

In Belarus, the End of One History and the Rise of a New Leader,  July 2020. Svetlana Tikhanovskaya will make history in the upcoming presidential elections in Belarus. No major outlet that I offered this Op-Ed would take it, so this is my only column (out of 500+) that has the title of my own choice.

Ukraine Beyond the Impeachment Headlines for Project Syndicate, January 2020. Focusing on the US impeachment, both sides ignore what is actually happening in Ukraine under President Zelensky.

Financial Restrictions Improve Competitive Balance in Sports for VoxEU, October 2018. The UEFA’s Financial Fair Play regulations, which aimed to “introduce more discipline and rationality in club football finances”, have indeed improved European football finances.

Russia’s World Cup Opportunity for Project Syndicate, April 2018. Though nobody outside Russia expects it, the World Cup 2018 will be a great event. And it turned out [4 months after the column was published] it was – perhaps the best thing that happened in Russia since Gagarin’s flight in 1961.

Russia’s Economic Stagnation Is Here to Stay for Project Syndicate, February 2018. Mostly obvious points in the ninth year of stagnation.

Trump helps Putin – and all dictators – when he calls U.S. elections ‘rigged’ (with Scott Gehlbach) for The Washington Post’s Monkey Cage, October 2016. The ‘rigged elections’ narrative feeds inverse cargo-cults (‘democracy does not work anywhere’) around the world.

Social Media and Corruption: Evidence from a Russin Blog for VoxEU, June 2016. A single blogger [the then-future leader of Russian opposition Alexey Navalny] could move markets posting about corruption in state-controlled companies.

Archive Columns

For many years (2004-2017), my fortnightly column has appeared in The Moscow Times – they are still featuring some of my columns on their web-site.