QMSA Thesis Projects – 2023 Cohort
Keyi Jiang
“The Impact of Live Streaming and Short Video on Product Sales in the E-Commerce Industry”
Abstract
The economic effects of COVID-19 have been widespread and multifaceted. Researchers are just beginning to understand the extent of the economic recession and the effectiveness of implemented measures. To further expand knowledge around this issue, the current research examines post-pandemic economic shocks and their disproportionate impact on employment and education. The study relies on survey data from CPS (Current Population Survey) and BLS (Bureau of Labor and Statistics) that is aggregated on IPUMS (Integrated Public Use Microdata Series). Multiple regression analysis is performed to isolate specific category effects of the pandemic. The results show the expected distributional effects of the economic recession. These include widespread employment losses and disproportionate effects on low-paying occupations compared to high-paying occupations. Disproportionate impacts are also witnessed in different demographics. Notably, it is observed that African Americans and Hispanics experience higher employment impacts compared to their Caucasian counterparts. In response to the pandemic, liquidity-constrained households seem to have invested less in education.
Shamil Khedgikar
“Fragmented Futures: Understanding the Role of Spatial Boundaries on Groundwater in India”
Abstract
This work provides the first comprehensive understanding of the effect of de facto and de jure spatial boundaries on groundwater extraction in India, identifying a possible link between the spatial configurations of settlements and resultant water scarcity due to negative externalities. We first provide a qualitative understanding of the structural deficiencies in India’s present regulatory framework for water governance. We identify a coordination problem between adjacent urban and rural areas across the spatial extents of aquifer systems, strengthening previous evidence of over-extraction being linked to the fragmentation of groundwater resources by adjacent administrative units. Through a review of spatial indices at various scales and a simulated approach to Principal Component Analysis (PCA), we develop a new metric – the Comprehensive Index of Groundwater Fragmentation (CIGF) and use it to empirically investigate the relationship between groundwater scarcity and government investments towards groundwater development for agriculture and urban use. Through an ensemble of spatial econometric models, we attempt to identify causes of over-extraction, finding strong evidence against the normative policies of groundwater welfarism adopted by the state and deficient coordination between urban settlements and their surrounding agricultural land. Next, we study the possibility of creating hierarchical spatial clusters for the effective regulation of groundwater while synergistically improving the sustainable use of groundwater through a series of counterfactual simulations. In doing so, we develop a two-dimensional approach to control for Omitted Variable Bias through the simulation of counterfactual scenarios. Lastly, we undertake a theoretical investigation of the intra-state water conservation initiative known as the Satyamev Jayate Water Cup in India in the context of our methods and models to understand strategies to negate the Hardin herder game of the Tragedy of the Commons.
“Globalization and Wage Inequality: Import Penetration, Technological Adoption and Skill Structure”
Abstract
This article examines how globalization has affected within-industry wage inequality in the United States in recent decades. The moderated impact of import penetration from developing countries — one of the most powerful forces of globalization on the U.S. domestic economy, is examined at the industry-state-year level from 2008-2020, where a systematic shock caused by the interaction between globalization and technological change is proposed to explain a significant widening impact on wage inequality conditioning on a skewed skill structure. An extensive set of empirical analyses are performed to test the proposed joint effects by utilizing multiple databases and a variance function regression (VFR) model. Results show that industries with relatively balanced skill structures are found to be most resilient to the systematic shock on wage inequality. While this effect is reversed, i.e., import penetration may even negatively associated with wage inequality, when technology adoption is at a relatively low level. The findings of this paper reveal important contextual conditions on which globalization may affect wage inequality in the United States, which helps to resolve a long-standing debate in the relevant literature.
“Two-stage Location Scale Mixed Modeling of EMA Data and Future Patterns of Dual Use of Cigs and E- Cigs in U.S. Adults”
Abstract
Combustible cigarette smoking is responsible for more than 480,000
deaths per year in the US, which accounts for 1 in every 5 annual US death. By
understanding if subjective factor EMA data collected during a limited period of time can
be used to reliably predict future trajectories of dual use of CIGs and ECIGs at the
subject level, we can help design and assess important intervention strategies for adult
smoking cessation in US adults through the use of ECIGs which research has shown to
be a less harmful alternative to CIG smoking. This study has been inspired by previous
work associating subjective outcome EMA data and future patterns of CIG use in adult
smokers, however, it is novel in its treatment of dual use of CIGs and ECIGs in US
adults.
Vladimir Novikov
“State Coercion & Civil Unrest: Evidence from Military Conscription during the Russo-Japanese War”
Abstract
How coercive nation-building affects civil unrest? I provide evidence on this question by showing how the coercive nation-building policy — military conscription — increased the number of peasant revolts and industrial workers’ strikes during the Russian Revolution of 1905-07. Difference-in-Difference estimate leveraging the plausibly exogenous variation in military conscription quotas by province-year is utilized. The event study design is used to explore the time-varying effects. I also show that the effect of military conscription on civil unrest is conditional on “oppositional” identities and local institutional structure. The results suggest that coercive nation-building policies increase citizens’ grievances resulting in uprisings when the state appears weak and non-government identities are salient. The paper contributes to nation-building literature by exploring within-country variation in conscription and unrest. It also provides evidence of the heterogeneous effects of wars on protests.
Zach Goldstein
“The Effect of Inclusionary Zoning on the Housing Supply”
Abstract
Inclusionary Zoning is a common policy across hundreds of U.S. cities and counties in which developers are required to set aside a fraction of units in new residential buildings for low-income tenants and charge below-market rent. A concern about IZ is that it decreases the housing supply by making it unprofitable to build. I investigate the regulatory burden IZ imposes on developers by exploiting a common feature of IZ policies, that they only take effect above a sharp threshold of unit counts, such as 20+ unit buildings. I study the extent to which developers avoid having to comply with IZ by strategically constructing apartment buildings with unit counts right below these thresholds. I find IZ-driven bunching below the thresholds in some jurisdictions, but in most cities and counties studied there is no evidence of bunching under the thresholds.